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Fears of AI disruption recede, with US software stocks hitting new highs in 2026AI 颠覆担忧消退,美国软件股创 2026 年阶段新高

IT House, Oct. 7 (Xinhua) -- U.S. software stocks are hitting new highs in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in earnings expectations, according to Reuters; according to several analysts, fears that artificial intelligence will disrupt the entire software industry have been largely exaggerated. IT House noticed that the standard...

IT之家 10 月 7 日消息,据路透社报道,受盈利预期大幅上调的推动,美国软件类股票正创出 2026 年阶段新高;多位分析师据此认为,此前市场对于人工智能将颠覆整个软件行业的担忧很大程度上被夸大了。 IT之家注意到,标…

2026年10月7日 发布 · 3 分钟阅读 · 免费

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IT House, Oct. 7 (Xinhua) -- U.S. software stocks are hitting new highs in 2026, driven by a sharp increase in earnings expectations, according to Reuters; according to several analysts, fears that artificial intelligence will disrupt the entire software industry have been largely exaggerated. IT House noted that the S&P 500 Software and Services Index rose 1.3% on Tuesday, hitting its highest level since November 2025. Prior to that, the index recorded its largest quarterly gain since the second quarter of 2020 in the July-September quarter. Software companies such as Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Accenture have delivered strong financial results, and companies have reached various cooperation with AI laboratories, which has boosted the recovery of the sector since late June. Individual stocks in the cybersecurity sector performed particularly well. Shares of Crowdstrike, Fortinet, and Palo Alto Networks all gained triple-digit percentages this year; businesses have continued to invest heavily in cybersecurity since entering the AI era. “For many software companies, AI is more of an enabler than a disruptor,” said Adam Turnquist, chief cross-asset strategist at LPL Finance. We are now witnessing a trend shift: the software sector regaining its market-leading position. We believe that there is an opportunity for the software sector to outperform the semiconductor sector for some time to come. "The software sector index has risen 5% this year; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which brings together many US chip makers, has risen as high as 87.5% in 2026, although the current index has declined significantly from its previous high. According to data from LSEG, the software industry's expected annual revenue growth rate for 2026 has climbed to 20.6% from 13.8% at the end of March. From late January to the lowest point in April, the software sector had a cumulative retracement of more than 26%. At that time, there was a sell-off in the market, which was called“ SaaSpocalypse ”by the industry; investors were worried that enterprises could use artificial intelligence to develop applications in-house in the future, and no longer need to purchase external SaaS software. Now analysts say there is no actual evidence to back up the panic. Rebecca Wettemann, chief executive of Valoir, a technology research firm, said: “The collapse of the so-called SaaS industry has not arrived as quickly as some on Wall Street had previously imagined." She added that as AI moves from the pilot phase to implementation, software vendors' feedback to customers' purchasing needs continue to grow. Nonetheless, this new, high-speed, iterative technology is reshaping business models, and industry risk has not completely disappeared. Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, believes that the real test of software stocks may come in the second half of 2027, when more data center computing power is put into production, and AI code generation tools may have a stronger impact on traditional software vendors.

中文

IT之家 10 月 7 日消息,据路透社报道,受盈利预期大幅上调的推动,美国软件类股票正创出 2026 年阶段新高;多位分析师据此认为,此前市场对于人工智能将颠覆整个软件行业的担忧很大程度上被夸大了。 IT之家注意到,标普 500 软件与服务指数周二上涨 1.3%,创下自 2025 年 11 月以来的最高点位。在此之前,该指数在 7‑9 月这个季度录得自 2020 年第二季度之后最大的季度涨幅。 赛富时(Salesforce)、ServiceNow、埃森哲(Accenture)等软件企业交出亮眼的财报业绩,再加上各家企业与 AI 实验室达成各类合作,助推板块自六月下旬开启一轮复苏行情。 网络安全板块个股表现尤为突出。Crowdstrike、Fortinet 以及 Palo Alto Networks 今年的股价涨幅都达到了三位数百分比;进入 AI 时代之后,各家企业持续在网络安全领域投入重金。 LPL 金融首席跨资产策略师亚当 · 特伦奎斯特(Adam Turnquist)表示:“对于很多软件公司而言,人工智能更多起到赋能作用,而并非颠覆者。我们如今正在见证一轮趋势转向:软件板块重新夺回市场领涨地位。我们认为接下来一段时间,软件板块存在跑赢半导体板块的机会。” 软件板块指数今年累计上涨 5%;而费城半导体指数汇集了众多美国芯片厂商,2026 年涨幅高达 87.5%,不过该指数目前距离自身前期高点已经出现明显回落。 来自 LSEG 的数据显示,软件行业 2026 年的预期年收益增长率已从 3 月底的 13.8% 攀升至 20.6%。 从 1 月下旬到 4 月触及最低点,软件板块曾经累计回撤超过 26%。当时市场出现一轮抛售,被业内称作“SaaS 大崩塌(SaaSpocalypse)”;投资者当时心存顾虑,认为企业今后可以借助人工智能自行内部开发应用程序,不再需要采购外部 SaaS 软件。 如今分析师表示,当初的恐慌并没有实际证据支撑。 科技调研机构 Valoir 的首席执行官丽贝卡 · 韦特曼(Rebecca Wettemann)称:“所谓 SaaS 行业崩塌的局面,完全没有像华尔街部分人士此前设想的那样快速到来。”她补充说明,随着人工智能从试验阶段走向落地应用,软件厂商反馈客户的采购需求依旧保持增长。 尽管如此,这项高速迭代的新技术仍在重塑商业模式,行业风险并未彻底消失。 扎克斯投资管理(Zacks Investment Management)首席市场策略师布莱恩 · 马尔伯里(Brian Mulberry)认为,软件股真正的考验或将出现在 2027 年下半年;届时更多的数据中心算力投产,AI 代码生成工具或许会对传统软件厂商形成更强的冲击。

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